Activity 1: Scenario Writing Exercise

Instructions. A scenario is a description of an imagined future state of affairs. Scenarios are a creative way of dealing with future possibilities. They may be presented in various forms or combinations of forms: narratives, feature newspaper stories, data tables, graphic displays, videotape, computer games, and the like. Scenarios include multiple variables—technological, informational, skills, public interest—and depict multiple possibilities.

1. Using the guidelines contained in this chapter—relevance, usefulness, originality, consistency, and communicability—create a future scenario for your work unit covering the next twenty-five years.

2. In preparing this scenario,

   Read, study and follow the techniques for scenario writing discussed in the text.

   Select a scenario type (future history, looking backwards, conglomerate, or decision consequences).

   Research relevant trend data, significant events that have happened or may happen to impact data trends, and what significant (trend-shaping ) people think about what might happen—their images of the future.

   Develop several alternative future scenarios.

   Analyze the implications of each scenario.

   Select one alternative future.

3. Prepare a report describing your scenario for the future of your work community.

4. Present it to your bosses or others as you see appropriate.